Eastern Caribbean Weather Outlook February 2026

Latest satellite imagery and important NHC reports for the Eastern Caribbean.

GOES-16 IR Caribbean. Image courtesy of NOAA. Updated: 2026-02-22 11:50 AM AST. 9 min ago

Daily Regional Weather Outlook

Updated: 2026-02-22 11:20 AST 39 min ago

A moderate to fresh wind flow brought shallow patches of low level clouds over the islands in morning. These patches moved on the southern end of a broad strong ridge pattern. Radar showed instances of light showers over the area, while satellite showed open cell clouds moving into the region. Model guidance shows that similar conditions will prevail for the period.

Winds are expected to remain elevated which may continue to trigger a moderate chance of brief showers.

Meanwhile, seas are back to relatively safe levels. This is in agreement with the latest issued forecast and no amendments are required at this time.  

Forecaster: Letitia Humphreys/charissa Humphreys  

A daily outlook issued by the Antigua & Barbuda Met Office, based on analysis of tropical systems, ridges, and Saharan dust affecting the region.

NHC Regional Weather Summary

Issued for: 2026-02-22 8:15 AM AST

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

Special Features

W Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front has moved across the NW Gulf tonight, and has reach from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico. Strong N winds to 30 kt immediately behind the front were depicted by satellite scatterometer data across the Texas coastal waters just before midnight, with local buoys there now showing 10 ft seas. The front will continue moving quickly across the basin through Sun night, producing strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough to very rough seas behind it.

Gale-force winds are expected offshore of Tampico by sunrise this morning, and offshore of Veracruz this afternoon and tonight. Seas offshore Tampico are expected to build to 12 to 14 ft, while seas offshore Veracruz are forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft. Winds and seas should gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue as high pressure builds across the Gulf region behind the cold front.

GOES East Infrared satellite view of the Eastern Caribbean

Image courtesy of NOAA GOES via NASA/MSFC.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: The same strong cold front described above currently moving through the Gulf of America will move offshore of the southeastern U.S. around midday today. Strong to gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas will prevail behind the front from Sun afternoon through early Mon. Seas during this time will build to 12-15 ft.

The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a the W Atlantic Gale warning.

A surface ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters W of 40W, with 1020 mb high pressure centered near 27N70W and a 1021 mb high pressure located near 24N49W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail west of the ridge, to the N of the Bahamas, ahead of an approaching cold front over the SE U.S. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are noted around the southern periphery of the ridge, N of 15N and W of 45W.

Moderate to fresh trades dominate the tropical Atlantic, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range in fading N swell. Decaying NW swell is also producing seas 7 to 9 ft north of 22N and east of 40W. The pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and frontal boundaries located just N of 31N resulting in fresh westerly winds and seas to 10 ft N of 26N between 30W-60W.

Farther E, fresh NE winds are seen between the Canary Islands and 20N due to the pressure gradient between a 1032 mb high pressure situated W of Portugal and a trough over NW Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned ridge will shift slowly eastward through Mon, allowing a strong cold front to move offshore of the southeastern U.S. midday today. Strong to gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas are expected behind the front this afternoon through early Mon. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening.

The front will stall from 30N55W to the central Dominican Republic early Wed, then drift W and dissipate through Thu.

NHC Forecaster: Stripling

Regional Satellite Animations

These satellite animations cover the Eastern Caribbean and the full tropical Atlantic from the West African coast to the Caribbean Sea. Each animation starts as a still image. Click play to start.

GOES East Infrared – Caribbean

An enhanced infrared satellite animation from GOES East (Band 13, 10.3 µm) focused on the Eastern Caribbean. Infrared imagery detects heat radiating from cloud tops — the colder (and therefore higher) a cloud top, the more likely it is producing heavy rain or thunderstorms. Bright blue-green and white areas indicate very cold, tall cloud tops associated with active convection, while grey tones show lower, warmer clouds or clear skies. This view is particularly useful at night when visible imagery is unavailable, and for spotting developing thunderstorm clusters that could organise into tropical disturbances.

GOES East Infrared – Caribbean – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NASA/MSFC.

GOES East Infrared – Atlantic

A wider infrared satellite animation from GOES East (Band 13, 10.3 µm) covering the tropical Atlantic from the Eastern Caribbean to the West African coast. This zoomed-in view makes it easier to track individual cloud clusters and tropical waves as they cross the Atlantic — the classic path toward the Caribbean during hurricane season. The colour scale highlights cold, high cloud tops in blue-green and white (indicating deep convection and potential storm development), while warmer grey tones represent lower clouds or clear skies.

GOES East Infrared – Atlantic – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NASA/MSFC.

GOES‑19 Tropical Atlantic – Sandwich

Sandwich imagery layers visible and infrared satellite data to reveal both cloud structure and cloud-top temperatures simultaneously. Bright white areas indicate tall, cold cloud tops — a sign of deep convection and active thunderstorm development. Darker, warmer tones represent low-level or thin clouds. This view is particularly useful for identifying intense weather activity and distinguishing between harmless fair-weather clouds and towering storm systems that may develop into tropical disturbances.

GOES‑19 Tropical Atlantic – Sandwich – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NOAA.

GOES‑19 Tropical Atlantic – Geocolor

GeoColor imagery shows the Earth as it appears to the human eye during the day, with enhanced city lights and infrared cloud detection at night. This wide-angle view stretches from the West African coast to the Caribbean, making it ideal for tracking tropical waves as they move westward across the Atlantic — the classic path that can lead to tropical storm and hurricane development during the season. You can also observe large-scale cloud patterns, the Saharan dust layer (appears as a hazy brownish tint), and the overall state of the tropical Atlantic.

GOES‑19 Tropical Atlantic – Geocolor – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NOAA.

GOES‑19 Caribbean Sector – Geocolor

The same GeoColor imagery as above, but zoomed in on the Caribbean region. The tighter framing provides more detail on local cloud formations, approaching weather systems, and how conditions are evolving directly over the Eastern Caribbean islands. Useful for monitoring nearby showers and thunderstorms, identifying incoming weather changes, and observing patterns such as the trade wind cumulus, Saharan dust haze, and developing convective clusters that the wider Atlantic view may not show as clearly.

GOES‑19 Caribbean Sector – Geocolor – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NOAA.

Regional Satellite Images

Saharan Air Layer – Natural Color

A natural-colour satellite view of the tropical Atlantic highlighting the Saharan Air Layer. Dust appears as a hazy tan or brownish plume stretching westward from the African coast across the ocean. Unlike the specialised RGB composites below, this image shows the atmosphere roughly as the human eye would see it from space, making it intuitive for spotting large-scale dust outbreaks. Dense dust reduces visibility and gives the sky a milky appearance over affected areas.

Saharan Air Layer natural color satellite image showing dust plumes across the tropical Atlantic

Image courtesy of UW-CIMSS/SSEC and NOAA.

Saharan Air Layer – Dust Tracker

This split-window satellite product is specifically designed to track Saharan dust plumes as they travel westward across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean. The colour scale ranges from yellow (moderate dry air or dust) through orange to red (dense Saharan Air Layer). Grey and white areas indicate clouds. Saharan dust affects the Caribbean in two important ways: it degrades air quality, aggravating respiratory conditions such as asthma and allergies, and it suppresses tropical cyclone development by introducing dry, stable air and increasing wind shear. During hurricane season, heavy dust outbreaks often coincide with quieter tropical activity — tracking dust movement can help indicate when conditions are less favourable for storm formation.

Saharan Air Layer split-window dust tracker showing dust plumes across the tropical Atlantic

Image courtesy of UW-CIMSS/SSEC and NOAA.

GOES RGB Caribbean – Dust

This specialised RGB (Red-Green-Blue) composite highlights Saharan dust plumes travelling westward across the Atlantic into the Caribbean. Dust typically appears as bright pink or magenta areas, while clouds show as darker red or brown tones and clear sky appears as a deep blue-black. Saharan dust affects the Caribbean in two important ways: it degrades air quality, aggravating respiratory conditions such as asthma and allergies, and it suppresses tropical cyclone development by introducing dry, stable air and increasing wind shear that disrupts storm organisation. During hurricane season, heavy dust outbreaks often coincide with quieter tropical activity, so tracking dust movement can help indicate when conditions are less favourable for storm formation. The image can also reveal other atmospheric features such as volcanic aerosols and wildfire smoke.

Dust plume Low, water cloud Desert surface Mid, thick clouds Mid, thin cloud Cold, thick clouds High, thin ice clouds Very thin clouds (Dust at night appears as purple shades below 3 km)

GOES Dust RGB satellite image of the Caribbean showing Saharan dust plumes and atmospheric aerosols

Image courtesy of NOAA.

NHC Caribbean Forecast Maps

Caribbean Sea Surface Temperature – 30-day Animation

Shows how ocean surface temperatures have changed across the Caribbean over the past 30 days. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are one of the most important factors in tropical cyclone development — waters above 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) provide the heat energy that fuels tropical storms and hurricanes. The warmer and deeper the warm water layer, the more conducive conditions become for storm formation and rapid intensification. During hurricane season, watch for unusually warm patches (deep reds and oranges), which can signal areas where approaching storms may strengthen significantly. Outside of hurricane season, SST trends help indicate the onset of warmer waters and the transition into the active period.

Caribbean Sea Surface Temperature 30-day animation (click play to start)

Animation courtesy of NOAA.

Caribbean 12-hr wind forecast

Shows predicted wind speeds across the Caribbean basin for the next 12 hours. The colour-filled regions use a rainbow scale — purple and blue shades represent lighter winds, greens and yellows indicate moderate winds, and orange to red areas signal the strongest winds. The colour bar along the top of the chart shows the wind speed values in knots. Use this chart to anticipate incoming wind changes, assess conditions for maritime travel, or gauge how a developing weather system may affect wind patterns in your area.

Caribbean 12-hr wind forecast – NHC/TAFB forecast map

Image courtesy of NOAA.

Caribbean 12-hr surface analysis

A snapshot of current atmospheric conditions across the Caribbean, showing pressure systems (highs and lows), fronts, troughs, and the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These features drive day-to-day weather — a passing trough can bring unsettled conditions and showers, while a strong high-pressure ridge typically means settled, drier weather. Look for tightly packed isobars (pressure lines), which indicate areas of stronger winds. Tropical waves appear as dashed lines moving westward and are often the seeds of tropical storm development during hurricane season.

Caribbean 12-hr surface analysis – NHC/TAFB forecast map

Image courtesy of NOAA.

Caribbean 12-hr wave height forecast

Displays predicted significant wave heights across the Atlantic and Caribbean for the next 12 hours. Black contour lines connect areas of equal wave height, with numbers labelling the height in feet. Lines spaced closely together indicate a steep change in sea conditions over a short distance. Useful for assessing sea conditions for boating, fishing, and coastal activities, and for tracking swells generated by distant storms. During hurricane season, a rapid increase in wave heights in a particular area may indicate an approaching or intensifying tropical system.

Caribbean 12-hr wave height forecast – NHC/TAFB forecast map

Image courtesy of NOAA.

Information on this page is updated according to the National Hurricane Center’s bulletin schedule. Satellite imagery refreshes approximately every 10 minutes. The Weather Summary for our Islands is updated at least daily, year‑round, and more frequently whenever new discussions are issued. The Tropical Weather Outlook section follows the NHC’s scheduled outlooks (four times daily from June 1 to November 30) and is checked daily during the off‑season for special updates.